NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced on September 4th that his party is ending its supply-and-confidence agreement (SACA) with the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The news comes just a week after Trudeau and his Cabinet assured Canadians it would carry them through to 2025. While a bold communications move, the announcement does not trigger an immediate election.
WHAT’S NEXT
All the NDP pulling its support means is that the government could in theory fall on its next confidence vote, though that remains unlikely.
Any opposition MP could table a confidence motion for consideration when the House resumes on September 16, and one usually occurs following a Fall Economic Statement (FES) or in the event the Prime Minister opts to prorogue and hold a Throne Speech. A confidence also automatically follow the spring budget.
WHY SACA FELL APART
The NDP pulled its support to create distance from the federal Liberals, who are trailing the Conservative Party of Canada by as much as 20 points in public opinion polls. There are four main reasons Singh and his party made this move today:
- New Democrats have spent the summer in their ridings and knocking doors in the byelections in Winnipeg and Montreal hearing the public anger at Trudeau boil over and turning on them for supporting the Liberals;
- The SACA agreement itself is largely complete, and the NDP can both claim wins and use this pivot to create distance;
- Ending SACA gives them more leverage to make larger demands in FES and the next budget; and
- The NDP caucus was growing increasingly frustrated with the deal, especially against the party’s own stagnant polling numbers.
FALL ELECTION REMAINS UNLIKELY
It’s worth noting that we have had minority governments in Canada for 12 of the past 20 years. The only government to fall unexpectedly was the Paul Martin Liberals in 2005 on a non-confidence vote. While the 2011 Conservative government under Stephen Harper technically fell on one such vote, it was not unexpected.
The 2008, 2011 and 2021 elections were all essentially set by the governing party of the day.
In essence, the NDP’s move ups the ante in Ottawa, but we are still a long ways off from an election.
Key take away: Vantage continues to believe the next federal election will take place well into 2025.
