With rumors of an early election swirling, Ontario’s Finance Minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, has tabled the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, Building Ontario For You.
The mini-budget doubles down on the Ford government’s key priorities – building a stronger economy with more jobs and bigger paycheques, an ambitious agenda to build critical infrastructure faster, investments in better services, and keeping costs down.
FES 2024 also delivers on some of the more partisan priorities of this government – addressing traffic congestion, getting tough on crime, cracking down on auto-theft, and powering Ontario’s growth through major investments in energy.
For fiscal hawks, the Fall Economic Statement is a major step in the right direction. This year’s deficit projections have decreased by $3.2 billion compared to this spring’s budget, with net debt-to-GDP and net debt-to-revenue ratios hitting the lowest levels since the early 2010s.
Here’s what you need to know about the 2024 Fall Economic Statement:
By the Numbers
- Total revenues: $212.63 billion, $6.94 billion higher than forecast in the 2024 Budget.
- Program Expenses: $218.26 billion, $214.49 billion, $3.77 billion higher than forecast in the 2024 Budget.
- Total Deficit: $6.6 billion in 2024-25, $2.2 billion lower than the outlook published in the 2024 Budget, with a path to balance in 2026-27.
Key Investments
Building the Economy
The Fall Economic Statement bolsters investments the Ford government has made to bolster Ontario’s economy, including:
- $94M as part of Phase 2 of the Life Sciences Strategy, focused on making Ontario a global manufacturing and life sciences hub. This brings the total investment up to $146M.
- $100M to the Invest Ontario Fund, aimed at securing strategic investments that create jobs and drive economic growth, bringing the total investment to $700M.
- $40M to extend the Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation Competitiveness Stream, supporting Ontario’s manufacturing sector.
- $6M to launch the Horizon Ontario Program, aimed at attracting European entrepreneurs to set up in Ontario while supporting Ontario-based companies to expand to Europe.
Keeping Costs Down
A mainstay of the PC’s agenda, today’s mini budget takes further action to keep costs down for Ontarians, including a $200 taxpayer rebate for those who filed their taxes, along with an additional $200 for each child for families that receive the Canada Child Benefit. The Ford government is also extending the gas tax and fuel tax rate cuts, saving 5 cents/litre at the pumps.
In all, the government says that their cost-saving measures will save taxpayers $12 billion this year alone.
Building Infrastructure, Highway and Transit
As the PCs continue touting their ambitious infrastructure agenda that includes highways, transit, and potentially even tunnels, the Fall Economic Statement continues with investments to keep building, including:
- $100M to increase the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund, aimed at supporting small, rural, and Northern municipalities to build critical infrastructure, bringing the total investment to $600M.
- $1 billion for the new Municipal Housing Infrastructure Program, aimed at supporting projects that enable housing in growing communities.
- Topping up the Housing-Enabling Water Systems Fund to a total of $825M, helping municipalities repair and develop water systems.
Investments in Healthcare and Seniors
Building on the PC’s $10 billion investment in healthcare over the last two years, today’s mini budget provides some additional funding to boost our healthcare system and other key services, including:
- $88 million to expand the Learn and Stay grant for students who commit to practice family medicine upon graduation – a measure that the government claims will provide an additional 1.2 million people with a family doctor.
- $150 million to expand the Ontario Fertility Program, intended to deliver more timely access to specialized services and support for fertility treatment, while commiting to a new tax credit in 2025 that would provide additional support for families facing high costs associated with in vitro fertilization, fertility medications, travel, and diagnostic testing.
- Prioritizing medical school seats for Ontario residents and creating additional opportunities for Ontarians who started their medical education abroad to complete their training in Ontario.
- $17 million over the next 3 years to expand access to services and activities for seniors through Active Living Centres in recreation centres and community organizations.
Opposition View
While FES offers new programs and new funding for many of the opposition parties’ priorities – namely housing and health care – both parties agreed the document simply doesn’t meet the moment.
Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie criticized the Ford government’s move to send cheques to Ontarians as “pale in comparison to what he has given away to his rich friends and insiders.” Her charge that “people are dying on waitlists” underscores her central focus on healthcare – or the lack of government focus on it.
Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles is disappointed the government failed to take up her promise of a new crown corporation dedicated to building affordable housing. Yesterday, she announced a proposal for Homes Ontario, the largest home-building program in the province’s history, reinforcing her commitment to making housing a top priority.
With rumors of a potential election on the horizon, both parties are sharpening their focus on what they perceive as the Ford government’s greatest vulnerability. For Crombie, that’s health care, and for Stiles that’s housing.
Stakeholders Response
Stakeholders were quick to reply to the Fall Economic Statement, with key industries largely viewing it as a positive step toward economic growth. Responses underscore shared goals of strengthening the manufacturing sector, advancing infrastructure projects, and providing essential support to small and medium-sized businesses. Prominent industry groups across sectors have praised the document for its forward-looking approach, which aligns closely with Ontario’s commitment to fostering innovation and long-term prosperity. These endorsements reflect a collective confidence that the Ontario government was hoping to get from the Fall Economic Statement.
What’s Next
Despite the headwinds that Ontario’s economy has faced – including higher interest rates, rising trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainty – today’s Fall Economic Statement continues to strike the balance between fiscal responsibility and targeted investments that keep costs down and build Ontario’s economy.
With rumblings of an early election in 2025, it’s more important for businesses in Ontario, or those looking to invest in Ontario, to ensure your industry’s priorities and policies are prioritized.
When you need to cut through the noise, McMillan Vantage is here to help your organization navigate Queen’s Park and keep your issues at the top of the agenda. To find out more, contact us at info@mcmillanvantage.com.
