Just 10 minutes after the polls closed last night, most broadcast networks had already seen enough of the results to predict a third majority for Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party. Marit Stiles and the NDP return as official opposition. Although Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie didn’t win a seat, the party won enough seats to regain official party status, which means more resources and speaking time in the legislature.
As of Friday morning, the unofficial seat count is:
Progressive Conservatives 80
New Democratic Party 27
Liberal Party 14
Green Party 2
Independent 1
https://www.elections.on.ca/en/election-results/provincial-results.html
Other Results
- The PCs won almost two-thirds of the 124 seats with 43% of the vote. The party won three less seats than in the 2022 election, although its vote count rose slightly from 41%.
- The NDP won 19% of the vote, which is down five points from 2022. Its 27 seats are down four.
- The Liberals won 30% of the vote, which is up six points. Its 14 seats are up by six.
- The Greens retained their two legislative seats.
Overall voter turnout was 45%, slightly higher than 43.5% 2022. These are historic lows.
Interesting Details
- Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie lost to PC Silvia Gualtieri in Mississauga East—Cooksville
- Liberal Stephanie Smyth beat incumbent NDP Jill Andrews in Toronto-St. Paul’s
- Liberal Jonathan Tsao beat incumbent independent Vincent Ke in Don Valley North
- Liberal Lee Fairclough beat incumbent PC Christine Hogarth in Etobicoke Lakeshore
- Green Aislinn Clancy won 50% for victory in Kitchener Centre
Leaders’ Speeches
Doug Ford in Etobicoke
He touted his commitment to fight President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and described the results as affirmation of his government’s plan to respond with a Team Ontario and Team Canada approach. He also highlighted promises on the Ring of Fire, interprovincial trade, trade diversification, protection against crime, infrastructure investment including the 401 tunnel, a continued focus on the skilled trades and an overall emphasis on the economy.
Marit Stiles in Toronto
She reiterated her commitment to fight for workers, and to focus on investment in schools and affordable housing. She promised to hold the government to account in the legislature, but also committed to supporting Ontario’s interests in the face of Trump’s threats.
Bonnie Crombie in Mississauga
She committed to remain as leader, highlighting the party’s return to official status in the legislature. She focused on the need for more family doctors and promised to hold the government to account on this and other issues.
What’s Next
A third majority term is historic. No Ontario leader has done it since the 1950s. Ford’s focus will be on:
- Tariffs: The U.S. is expected to impose tariffs as soon as next Tuesday. The Ontario economy is trade dependent, with exports to the U.S. making up more than 80% of all exports. A round of tariffs and counter-tariffs will hurt on both sides of the border but especially here. Ontario could well tip into recession. As leader of Canada’s council of premiers, known as the Council of the Federation, Ford will play an important role in the fight. He’ll want to be sure to make common cause with the successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (The federal Liberals will choose a new leader in barely two weeks.) But Canada-U.S., like all international relations, are largely a federal responsibility.
- Infrastructure: Ford has touted his government’s investment in capital projects, especially transportation and transit, and promised during the campaign to spend even more. The actual budget isn’t much more than what the Liberal government before him spent although he has made infrastructure a bigger priority and has shifted some priorities. In particular, he’ll have to ensure that projects make better progress than the very late Eglinton LRT and he’s sure to be quizzed regularly on the 401 tunnel.
- Housing: Ford promised construction of 1.5 million homes. Results are not keeping pace and he’ll want things to accelerate. No pocketbook issue is more important to voters than housing.
- Healthcare: The opposition parties attacked Ford for not doing enough to ensure that Ontarians have a family doctor. Most analysis shows that this issue could get worse given that population increases have outstripped the number of new doctors, especially given the rising pace of retirements. This will require the government’s unwavering focus.
- Greenbelt: Former Liberal premier Dalton McGuinty lost his shot at a third majority government in 2011 (he won a minority mandate) because of the so-called “gas plant” scandal. The Greenbelt scandal didn’t prove nearly as debilitating yesterday for Ford but his government is still being investigated by the RCMP. No one knows when the RCMP will announce its findings.
