Mark Carney wins. Now what?
Election night was a tense back-and-forth between Carney’s Liberal Party of Canada and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party of Canada, with the NDP and the Bloc Québécois not showing up as they’d hoped. Elections Canada paused vote counting in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, but when the final tally was recorded later that day, it became official: Mark Carney will serve as Canada’s next Prime Minister in a minority government.
On election night, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced he would be stepping down as party leader after nearly losing official party status, and despite not winning his own riding, Poilievre is expected to continue leading the Conservatives. By the morning of April 30, Green Party Co-Leader, Jonathan Pedneault, announced he too would step down, taking responsibility for the party’s election losses.
For weeks, the parties presented competing visions for how growth could be encouraged and capital attracted. They’ve argued over tax policy, climate policy and housing policy. Now, comes the hard part – doing what was promised in the extraordinary context of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to the bilateral trading relationship and even Canadian sovereignty.
Here’s what you need to know about what’s next.
Job one: Trump and a Transition Team
Carney will announce a transition team to guide how the next government will take office and work together. This team will hire and assign staff, lead engagement with the nonpartisan public service and help decide among competing policy priorities amid the politics of the moment. The transition team will firm up the internal engine of the new government.
The first order of business for Carney was a call with U.S. President Donald Trump that took place on April 29. Media reports confirm they discussed the importance of Canada and the United States working together as independent, sovereign nations. The two are expected to meet in person soon. That first meeting will likely set the tone for critical negotiations to come on trade and tariffs, defence, energy and border security. It offers an opportunity for the new prime minister to assert Canadian priorities while the world is watching. It is both a huge opportunity for him to impress the Canadian electorate and a huge risk given Trump’s at once erratic and skillful nature.
Until a new Cabinet is sworn in, the government is still in transition. Major decisions aren’t made unless urgent. But given the urgency of the moment, the transition process is sure to be in hurry-up mode – no more than a matter of weeks. Stakeholders should quickly begin preparing memos for new ministers and senior staff on their key issues.
New MPs start undergoing orientation about a week after the election results are certified, while returning MPs will immediately begin preparation for Parliament’s return. This gives your organization an early opportunity to congratulate and re-engage your champions. Those who wish to congratulate the Prime Minister can also send official correspondence.
Up next: A new Cabinet and Throne Speech
We expect a smaller Cabinet to be sworn-in in the next two weeks, with mandate letters to be completed over the summer. Parliament will likely be recalled at the end of May for a short sitting. Following the election of a Speaker, the Governor General will read the Throne Speech.
Then comes the Throne Speech debate, confidence votes and the appointment of committee memberships. There is also urgency to return because the new government will need explicit permission from the House of Commons to resume control over the public purse through a vote on a Supply Motion.
With a minority, expect a much more complicated legislative environment. Even routine matters could trigger significant political drama, with weakened opposition parties like the NDP and Bloc holding limited leverage but still capable of creating instability.
Bringing Back the House
This sitting will be tightly focused on necessary fiscal measures as well as core promises related to the economy, tariffs, affordability and interprovincial trade. The new government plans to introduce a budget featuring a promised middle-class tax cut, legislation to eliminate federal barriers to interprovincial trade, and the formal end of the consumer carbon tax.
The Liberals will likely govern vote by vote, negotiating support for each piece of legislation to maintain confidence of the House and avoid triggering another election. Do not expect big, new programs or restructuring to be announced this spring – that will likely occur in a beefed-up Fall Economic Statement or in winter’s budget.
To eliminate all federal barriers to interprovincial trade and labour mobility by July 1, 2025, Prime Minister Carney must accelerate engagement with the provinces and territories, stakeholders and Indigenous groups. While many of the Premiers are publicly cheering the intention to better tie together the Canadian economy, Premiers will also be keen to quietly protect local industries, jobs and political support. We’re paying extra attention to the dynamics between the feds and Quebec, Ontario and Alberta.
Spending the Summer Recess with a good (briefing) book
We expect the short spring session to adjourn in late June, letting new ministers dive deep into their portfolios, MPs to engage constituents on the BBQ circuit and the NDP to hold a leadership race. We will also likely see significant movement in the senior civil service and in ministers’ offices over the summer.
Prime Minister Carney and his team will also look forward to hosting the G7 summit, taking place between June 15 and 17 in Kananaskis, Alberta, alongside leaders from the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan.
As ministers, their staff and the civil servants who support them begin work to implement the party platform, stakeholders should be prepared to spend part of the summer and much of the fall getting in front of the right decision-makers. You should also begin preparing materials to engage Finance officials, political staff and the Commons Finance Committee in advance of FES and/or during pre-budget consultations.
The fall sitting will likely be substantive, with action on many campaign promises such as defense procurement, housing, business incentives and natural resource policy. The House of Commons is currently set to return on September 15, 2025, but that could easily change.
Don’t Forget!
Over the coming days, weeks and months, Team Vantage will ensure you know who’s who in the new government, what’s next on its policy agenda and how to get your organization’s priorities on the agenda. Send us a note at info@mcmillanvantage.com to learn more.
