What Happened?
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy tabled a post-election budget today focused on protecting Ontarians and the provincial economy from the U.S. threat: A Plan to Protect Ontario.
Amid inflation and interest rate uncertainty caused by tariffs and other macroeconomic factors, Budget 2025 sets out a record $232.2 billion in spending, including a $14.6 billion deficit. The Finance Minister hopes to get Ontario back to balance in 2027-2028.
The budget document includes key investments promised during the winter campaign, such as developing the critical minerals, energy, and technology sectors through new spending on infrastructure and workforce talent.
Bethlenfalvy also announced a significant spending increase on public services like health and education. The opposition parties described this as insufficient to address the demands of families and working people.
Here’s what you need to know.
What’s What?
Topline Figures
- Total Revenues (2024-2025): $221.6 billion, $13.4 billion higher than forecasted.
- Program Expenses (2024-2025): $212.4 billion, $11.8 billion higher than forecasted.
- Total Deficit (2024-2025): $6.0 billion, $3.8 billion lower than forecasted.
- Fiscal Forecast: (2025-2026): Deficit of $14.6 billion, (2026-2027): Deficit of $7.8 billion, (2027-2028): Surplus of $0.2 billion.
Economic Development & Infrastructure
- Introducing a $500 million Critical Minerals Processing Fund.
- Committing to a capital plan over the next 10 years, totalling $200 billion, including more than $33 billion in 2025-2026. This money is largely allocated for highway expansion and rehabilitation, public transit, hospitals and other health infrastructure, and schools and child care spaces.
- Tripling loan guarantees in the Indigenous Opportunities Financing Program to $3 billion and expanding eligibility to include energy, pipelines, mining, and critical minerals, resource development, and other sectors.
- Investing $70 million over four years in the Indigenous Participation Fund to improve capacity for Indigenous communities and organizations to participate in regulatory processes related to mineral exploration and mine development.
- Enhancing and expanding the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Credit for businesses that invest in biding, machinery and equipment used for manufacturing and processing in the province by increasing the tax credit rate for Canadian-controlled private corporations from 10 to 15 percent and temporarily expanding eligibility for a 15 percent non-refundable version of the credit to non-CCPCs which invest in the province.
- Creating a $5 billion Protect Ontario Account for businesses facing significant tariff-related business disruptions, a backstop for those that have exhausted other available funding.
- Providing an additional $1 billion over three years for the Skills Development Fund Capital and Training Streams to help attract and train skilled workers.
Health and Education
- Committing to $91.1 billion in spending this year, up about $6 billion. This includes $2.1 billion for a Primary Care Action team initiative led by Dr. Jane Philpott.
- Providing a 4% increase in hospital funding, and an equal boost to community-based mental health and addictions programs.
- Providing a 3.3% Increase in funding for public education to $30.3 billion.
Miscellaneous Items
- Permanently cutting the gas and fuel tax.
- Introducing an Ontario Grape Support Program, totalling $175 million over five years, and expanding the VQA Wine Support Program.
- Cutting the basic tax rate by 50 per cent for spirits sold on-site at distilleries, as well as reducing taxes for microbreweries and ciders.
- Spending $57 million on two new H-135 helicopters in Niagara and Windsor to help secure the border with the U.S.
Opposition View
NDP Leader Marit Stiles said: “This is a missed opportunity to strengthen Ontario… this budget delivers little hope and no reassurance.” Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said: “Every budget that doesn’t address the crisis in healthcare, education, and housing makes the problems worse.” And Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said, in reference to a high-profile pre-election program: “This is the government that spent $3.2 billion sending $200 cheques to millionaires and billionaires.” He added that the government should be more strategic about how it focuses on responding to tariff impacts.
What’s Next?
The P.C. government hopes this package will be sufficient to protect workers and businesses, and be seen as such.
The budget likely will move through the legislature without much more than rhetorical challenge. It is part of a broader set of legislative priorities that the Ford government is pushing forward – including Bill 5, Protecting Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act and Bill 17, Protecting Ontario by Building Faster and Smarter Act.
The Ontario legislature is set until mid-June before rising for the summer recess.
Team Vantage will be happy to answer questions you may have about your priorities, including in the context of the new budget and other Ford government priorities. Email as at info@mcmillanvantage.com for more.
