With six months plus a few days as Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney has an ambitious to do list as the House of Commons resumes today.
Here’s what you need to know:
Build Canada Homes and the Housing Crisis
The housing issue is again bubbling to the top of Canadians’ list of concerns after dropping down amid the trade war. Sunday’s announcement – the creation of Build Canada Homes and that former Deputy Mayor of Toronto Ana Bailão will lead it – clarifies some of the details.
The new federal agency will build affordable housing at scale, helping to fight homelessness by building transitional and supportive housing – working with provinces, territories, municipalities, and Indigenous communities.
Build Canada Homes will focus primarily on non-market housing, supporting a mix of income needs as part of a national effort to double housing construction, restore affordability, and reduce homelessness. Further details on these investments will be announced over the coming months
Major Projects Office and Projects of National Interest
Carney unveiled the first round of “projects of national interest” last week to be sent to the Major Projects Office (MPO), a new agency tasked with streamlining approvals. Dawn Farell will lead the MPO, which will also be looking to identify future projects for inclusion on the list. Farrell will also lead work on “transformative strategies” for core priority areas – from critical minerals and developments related to Arctic sovereignty to specific projects like high-speed rail and the port at Churchill.
Every recent prime minister has sought to “fix” permitting and approvals and return to an era when projects were delivered in years, not decades. Carney has put a lot of political capital into proving he’s the one who can get it done – now Farrell and his Cabinet need to help him deliver on this promise.
Strategic Resource Fund, the future of SIF and other industrial policy
The government announced earlier this month billions in funding to support workers and industries impacted by Trump’s tariffs. This included a new $5-billion Strategic Resource Fund (SRF) for industries like steel and aluminum, and for other critical minerals like copper and perennially trade-challenged lumber. ISED will administer the program, whose criteria are intended to cast a wide net across sectors. It is asking potential project proponents to apply for funding while consultations continue on the program’s final shape.
The government backgrounder indicated the SRF will, in the near term, replace the Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF), though SIF applications already underway will not be affected. ISED has heard industry concerns about the timelines and red tape associated with SIF, and SRF is intended to be faster and more nimble.
After tabling the 2025 budget this fall, the government plans to engage on a broader approach to industrial policy. There is a desire to outline in the 2026 budget an industrial policy strategy that replaces many of the Trudeau-era programs coming up for renewal that focused on the green economy. Stakeholders looking to help shape that policy should prepare for late-fall engagement plans.
Defence Industrial Policy and the NATO 2 percent
Work on a Canadian Defence Industrial Policy is well underway as Carney aims to hit Canada’s 2 per cent NATO spending target. He announced the plan in the summer, which includes investing in defence-related infrastructure and housing as well as critical mineral projects that fall under national security. Officials across departments who are otherwise being asked to cut spending generally are looking for projects that can fall under defence spending. This means proponents with potential dual-use projects, whether related to infrastructure or government procurement, should consider how their projects might fit into NATO spending criteria.
An “Austerity” Budget
The Carney government has spent billions for all of the above, but it also wants to balance the operational budget by 2028/29. Together with Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, the Prime Minister has signalled deep cuts that will result in layoffs in the public service as well as the use of AI to streamline work and the tightening of public procurement. Such belt-tightening means anything outside of core priorities – infrastructure, defence, natural resources and housing – will likely face cuts.
Ministers are being tested against priorities and the platform Carney has set ambitious goals – and he expects his ministers to deliver. They are expected to focus on delivering on the seven priorities in the single mandate letter everyone in Cabinet got when Carney took office.
Political challenges, populist issues and Trump
The Carney team also faces a restive public. While polling is still good, concerns like temporary foreign workers and bail reform could quickly derail the government’s agenda. Unemployment is up too, adding to cost-of-living concerns, especially housing. Carney likely will try to enact short term solutions to crime and immigration issues while staying focused on his economic priorities.
Then there is the Trump factor: the President could at any moment drop a bomb on the government’s best laid plans by indicating he will pull out of CUSMA or that Canada is getting another set of tariffs.
Political uncertainty remains the norm in these perpetually unprecedented times.
Poilievre is back
CPC leader Pierre Poilievre won a summer byelection and will be back in the House on now as well. His ability to grab headlines and make news whenever the government missteps adds another layer of challenge for the minority Liberal government. Poilievre sent the PM recently a letter outlining four priorities he likely will make his focus: cost of living, unemployment, crime, and immigration.
The CPC may be wary of tabling too many policy solutions, unless they can find clear daylight with the Liberals. The leader’s office and others in the party worry about the Liberals taking up too many of their ideas, which builds on a sentiment many Conservatives have that Team Carney “copied” many of their best platform commitments during the writ.
Minority challenges
The Liberals are just a few seats shy of a majority – and rumours continue about how they might get to a majority – but the fact remains that Carney leads a minority government. He will continue to need another party to either abstain or vote with the government in order to pass key legislation.
The CPC may play ball on some files, like bail reform, but the Bloc Québécois already is questioning many Carney policies from an environmental perspective. Meanwhile, the NDP is mostly looking within as it seeks a new leader. All in all, the opposition parties aren’t hungry for an election, which should buy Carney some months (if not years) to tackle that massive To Do list.
Looking to get your issues on the agenda in Ottawa this fall? McMillan Vantage is here to help. Reach out at info@mcmillanvantage.com to discuss your priorities and to learn more about what’s next during Carney’s first full sitting as Prime Minister.
