After a successful turn on the global stage, Prime Minister Mark Carney needs to show he can deliver on his domestic agenda as Parliament resumes Monday.
Carney’s recent trade win with China and his much-applauded speech at the World Economic Forum have put some wind in the Liberals’ sails. But Carney is still struggling with the implementation of his legislative agenda.
The Liberals only hold a minority of seats in the House of Commons. Carney got within one seat of a majority when Conservative MP Michael Ma crossed the floor before Christmas. But then Chrystia Freeland resigned her seat, and other Trudeau-era ministers may follow suit. By-elections are a distraction when the governing party has to defend seats.
Employment numbers are up, inflation is down, and growth is expanding. But consumer sentiment and Canadians’ perceptions of the economy aren’t buoyant. Carney’s brand is closely linked to the economy. Can he prove to Canadians that his big plans are what the country needs?
On Monday morning, Carney is set to announce a suite of affordability measures attempt to reset that domestic agenda and prove to Canadians he can deliver at home and abroad, the Toronto Star reported. The government will provide a one-time boost to the GST credit in June to help with grocery costs, as well as a permanent 25 per cent boost to the means-tested payout that will roll out over the next five years.
The Liberals are also expected to announce a new climate policy and an electricity strategy as a balm to environmentalists and leftists disappointed in the Carney government’s approach to resource and pipeline development.
The big questions and big bets:
Will more MPs cross the floor to give Carney a majority?
Will more Liberal MPs resign, and when would the subsequent by-elections take place?
Would any of this impact Cabinet membership?
What does this mean for the Budget Implementation Act and other key legislative priorities? Carney says he’s going to attract $1 trillion in investment to Canada with the measures in this budget – but he needs to pass the bill to get started.
What will be in the Spring Economic Statement? We expect it to be in late March or early April.
Supply (opposition) days
The government must grant the opposition parties 15 “oppo” days where they control the agenda, including possible non-confidence votes. Seven must take place before March 26, and the other eight by June 23.
When will we get
Defence Industrial Strategy: Defence Minister David McGuinty said this was to be released by Christmas. The government has yet to provide an update.
Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund: This is worth $2 billion over five years, with funds starting in fiscal 2026–27. Details on governance, investment criteria, and first calls for proposals are due this year.
Digital Transformation Office: This is the new body to lead government-wide tech adoption, including AI initiatives. This is expected to come online in 2026, but few details are public.
The “Super Deduction”: The Productivity Super Deduction (immediate expensing and enhanced write-offs) was a big announcement in Budget 2025 to encourage business investment. Details on eligibility, timelines, and administrative procedures are expected by mid-year.
Legislation
Bill C-4 is in the Senate and should pass shortly. This has measures to improve affordability, including a cut to the lowest federal personal income tax rate, a GST rebate for first‑time home buyers, and the repeal of the federal fuel charge. It also establishes a centralized privacy regime for federal parties, clarifying how they handle personal data.
C-15, The Budget Implementation Act, has passed second reading. But it is unclear if the Liberals have the votes to get it out of committee and into the House for passage.
C-8 deals with Canadian cybersecurity reform but is stalled in committee. A previous bill had all-party support.
A number of crime-related bills are at various stages of the legislative process (C-9 at the House committee, C-12 in the Senate, C-14 at Second Reading in the House, C-16 not yet at Second Reading in the House). Vantage also expects that Bill S-201 will get public attention, especially on social media, due to privacy concerns.
Opposition watch
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre faces a leadership review at the end of January. Poilievre is expected to get a solid mandate. Meanwhile, the NDP will announce its new leader to succeed Jagmeet Singh at a party convention March 27-29 in Winnipeg.
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