On March 18, 2026, Quebec’s Minister of Finance Eric Girard tabled the government’s 2026–27 budget, characterized by François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) as a fiscally responsible plan. In practice, the budget is notable for how few major new measures or items it contains, with spending across most departments remaining flat.
While governments often load up their last budget before an election with goodies such as tax cuts or new spending programs, Girard opted for a more cautious approach in the context of economic uncertainty triggered by the tariff chaos south of the border, continued concerns about the cost of living, and increased prices for oil and gas due to the war in Iran.
By the Numbers
The 2025–26 deficit was projected to be $13.4 billion, but will instead be only $9.9 billion, or 1.2 per cent of provincial GDP, which is among the lowest in Canada.
Quebec’s 2026–27 fiscal plan shows minimal year-over-year movement, with total revenues projected at $166.5B. The province’s official deficit, after deposits to the Generations Fund, stands at $8.6B, or 1.3% of GDP.
Ahead of the election set for October 5, the CAQ will select its new leader and the next Premier of Quebec on April 12. Girard chose to set aside $250 million per year over five years as a reserve for the incoming CAQ leader to allocate, giving them some flexibility, but not enough to materially shift fiscal priorities in the short term.
Key Investments
Education and Health
Health and education remain the only core departments with noticeable spending growth, largely reflecting multi-year commitments rather than new initiatives. The government is allocating close to $4.3 billion over five years to support its core public missions, including funding for access to medications, reducing surgical wait times, front-line care, and measures to address school space needs and labour shortages in the education system. These investments were anticipated and do not represent a major policy shift.
Infrastructure
The 2026–2036 Quebec Infrastructure Plan (QIP) now totals $167 billion, an increase of $3 billion. Notably, 71% of the QIP is now directed toward asset maintenance, an important shift from previous plans that placed more emphasis on expansion.
The government is also accelerating more than $5 billion in previously planned investments over the next six years, which may advance procurement timelines but do not represent new commitments. Hydro-Québec’s long-term investment plan also remains unchanged.
Economic Development
Economic development receives limited new funding, with the budget introducing more than $1.7 billion over five years in measures that are modest in scale and distributed across multiple programs. The most significant is a $410.1 million envelope to support investment projects in “promising sectors,” including aerospace, innovative manufacturing, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, life sciences, cybersecurity, and other advanced industries. Of this amount, $375 million is specifically dedicated to stimulating business investment through tools such as Investissement Québec’s Economic Development Fund and programs like ESSOR. The budget also allocates $283 million to innovation-related initiatives, with funding spread across public research support, digital modernization and the adoption of advanced technologies as part of existing programs.
Beyond these measures, the government outlined larger multi‑year industrial commitments. To position Quebec as a leader in critical and strategic minerals, the budget allocates $1 billion in new capital to create the Fonds pour les minéraux critiques et stratégiques (FMCS), which will reach $2.5 billion once existing Natural Resources and Energy Capital Fund investments are combined. The FMCS is intended to support mining and processing activities and will be equipped with tools tailored to the sector, including the ability to use long‑term supply agreements. Legislative amendments will be required to operationalize the fund.
Separately, the budget grants the government up to $2 billion in additional investment capacity through Investissement Québec, a discretionary authority intended to support headquarters retention and selected transactions in strategic sectors such as critical minerals.
Opposition Reaction
As official opposition, the Quebec Liberal Party criticized the budget for failing to respond meaningfully to the province’s affordability and housing challenges. New Liberal leader Charles Milliard questioned “where the housing crisis is in this budget,” pointing to declining housing starts and arguing the government has not provided sufficient relief for households facing rising costs. He also mocked the government’s $250 million annual reserve for the incoming CAQ leader, suggesting it serves internal party politics more than public priorities.
The Parti Québécois (PQ), currently leading in the polls, dismissed the budget as forgettable. PQ MNA Pascal Paradis argued that its overall “sobriety” feels out of step with the far more ambitious promises coming from the CAQ leadership contenders. He also criticized the expansion of the provincial bureaucracy under the CAQ and noted the absence of measures to help Quebecers facing higher fuel prices.
What’s Next
The CAQ will elect its new leader and the next Quebec premier on April 12. While the incoming leader may introduce adjustments to certain priorities, the overall framework is unlikely to change in a significant way. With the CAQ maintaining a majority in the National Assembly, the budget is still expected to be adopted before mid-June.
However, questions remain regarding the implementation of many budget measures. The transition in leadership, coupled with the approaching provincial election, will create a period of uncertainty for the public service. Senior officials are likely to be cautious about making major commitments or advancing complex files until there is greater clarity about the political direction for the next mandate.
Despite this uncertainty, there may be opportunities over the coming six months to engage constructively with both government and opposition parties, deepen relationships, and position priorities so they are well understood by all sides ahead of the electoral period. McMillan Vantage can help navigate this landscape, facilitate targeted discussions with decision makers across parties, and ensure you are prepared to act quickly once the election is over.
If you have questions about what’s in Budget 2026-2027, contact us today at info@mcmillanvantage.com for more information.
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